Maybe.
A tired Tory canvasser - up since 4 a.m. this morning, apparently - is claiming his party have 64 per cent of the doorstep pledges. That's serious landslide territory.
Though of course such statistics can mean everything, or absolutely nothing. Voter turnout already looks significantly less than 2005, which takes a considerable sheen off such declarations.
Still, UKIP seem confident. Their American-sounding party official - surely there is an irony there, somewhere? - seems to think his party could beat Labour. Which would be some achievement for a party until now best known for an endorsement from perma-tanned television legend Robert Kilroy-Silk. And even he defected.
Tight lipped officials still dominate proceedings, though I'm sure that will soon change. We're still on for a 2 a.m. result, people.
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4 comments:
Ignore what the workers say we always are far too optimistic, but if he had seen the votes, he would not be saying something so obviously wrong which does not tally with your "marginal" post.
This as-it-happens blog is a very good idea, I am going to suggest it to my own local newspaper editor if you don't mind (I will give you guys the credit - I promise).
I think 64% of the doorstep pledges means that 64% of identified conservatives were turned out to vote. It doesn't equate to getting 64% of the vote as it obviously depends on how many pledges you have in the first place.
That's an important figure to keep an eye on on polling day as you want the turnout of "your" supporters to be higher than turnout generally (and that of your opponents if you can measure that)
Marcus - by all means. God bless you for your words, mean a lot to us embittered and foul-tempered hacks right now!
Hywel - good point, I was responding to their claims, which suggested they believe they are on for a landslide.
Of course, whatever happens now will probably have nothing to do with such figures.
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